I have never really liked risk assessments that involve some vague calculation of consequence and likelihood. I have witnessed, and perhaps been involved in, many arguments about where to stick some potential or even past disaster into a limited matrix.
A couple of years ago, I had a whinge/thought experiment on an alternative method of risk evaluation. I enjoyed the use of the term Probability-Impact Graph, rather than Likelihood-Consequence Matrix, to create a little theme - see if you can guess what it was.
I’ve repackaged these posts and a follow-up post for renewed consumption below. Each image is actually a link to the post.
I haven’t come back to this topic to explore the likelihood side of the equation. I have always quite liked the concept of exposure but I do worry that people have a tendency to move the goal posts until they get the answer they like. Perhaps I will re-examine this topic again in the near future.
Let me know what you think, either below in the comments to this post or under the individual posts linked above.